The Climate Horse Race is a Statistical Tie

YawnBy: Sierra Rayne.

The past couple weeks have seen the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) release their latest datasets on global temperatures.  Both the JMA and NOAA reported that June 2014 was the hottest June on record.

Here is Seth Borenstein’s report over at the Associated Press:

The globe is on a hot streak, setting a heat record in June. That’s after the world broke a record in May.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration announced Monday that last month’s average global temperature was 61.2 degrees, which is 1.3 degrees higher than the 20th century average. It beat 2010’s old record by one-twentieth of a degree.

While one-twentieth of a degree doesn’t sound like much, in temperature records it’s like winning a horse race by several lengths, said NOAA climate monitoring chief Derek Arndt.”

Several points of confusion here.  First off, according Arndt’s profile at the American Public University, “he is the Chief of the Climate Monitoring Branch at NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, North Carolina. He holds a Bachelor’s and Master’s Degree in meteorology from the University of Oklahoma, and is currently enrolled in OU’s Ph.D. program in Adult and Higher Education Administration.”

Read the rest at: American Thinker

  • “THE UN’s climate change chief, Rajendra Pachauri, has acknowledged a 17-year pause in global temperature rises, confirmed recently by Britain’s Met Office, but said it would need to last “30 to 40 years at least” to break the long-term global warming trend.”

    So if it’s warm for three months, that is proof positive of global warming. But if there is no significant change in the average global temperatures for 17+ years, it’s not enough to judge what the trend is? Give me a break.

  • Fietser

    The record in May was also broken?? Well no more rubbish then that the Earth isn’t warming. It clearly is. Thanks for the information. I never thought this blog would report on an ever increasing warming.

    • Do you see the part where it says “Read the rest at: American Thinker”? If you click on the link it takes you to the whole article at American Thinker. You have to read the whole story, not just what is posted above. What is posted above is just the first few paragraphs of the article. In it, it talks about the margin of error for these readings and that the anomalies recorded are statistically insignificant when you include the margin of error, which apparently the JMA, and NOAA do not.
      Another thing that is not mentioned in the story, but I think is something to be considered, is that when we get to the end of the year and calculate the average temperatures for the whole year, what will the average be for the year? Remember the first quarter? It was record temps too, but not on the warm end of things. So I wouldn’t break out the champagne just yet.
      And remember, it takes a 20-30 year trend to prove cooling. It does not take three warm months to prove warming. Especially when the preceding three months were record cold.

    • Ericzipp

      Why did they cherry pick one month. Is climate only dependent on temperatures in June. Why is the a record growth in ice cover this year. Why have all the other months been cooler than average. Only thing that is settled is your lack of ability when it comes to reasoning.

  • Fietser

    Error bars :). It means that 1998 could be a lot cooler and that 2014 could be by far the hottest year ever which means that the warming could be alarmingly higher than scientists could ever imagine it to be. We should do something about it wouldn’t you agree?

    But then again, I’m trusting the conclusions of the Japan Meteorological Agency above that of some blogger. The blogger doesn’t have the scientific background to question this nor do you have the scientific background to debunk the story of the blogger.

    • Anybody with a scientific background understands the need for a margin of error in data. It is a way to describe just how much uncertainty exists in the data. And there always is some uncertainty. Your above exclamation is telling of how little you understand about it. It’s true that “1998 could be a lot cooler and that 2014 could be by far the hottest year ever.” But it is also true that 2014 could be a lot cooler and that 1998 could be by far the hottest year ever. True science does not deal with “could”, which is why there needs to be a method to express uncertainty, hence error bars. And with the data that was put out from JMA and NOAA having no error bars they are claiming that they have 100% certainty in their data, which is just not possible. So if you introduce a margin of error into those numbers it makes the the temperatures a statistical tie with those other years. If you don’t understand that then maybe you should think about changing your major to Greek poetry, or something. Because you obviously don’t have a mind for scientific inquiry.

      • Fietser

        You should understand that most of the errors are not in our favour. So if you go that path then realize that the problem is much bigger than any alarming report we’ve had so far.

  • Rob N. Hood

    Sheesh Neil- why do you always have to end your posts with insults? It’s really ugly. Another constructive criticism by yours truly.

    • Only if it is deserved. I think Fister is a bit arrogant, and condescending, and childish. He obviously does not understand something very basic. So why should I be nice to him? He’s an absolute Jerk to me. You are not much better.

      • Fietser

        Lost for words Neilio?

        • What is that supposed to mean?

  • Rob N. Hood

    You admit no wrong, but know I’m right. It’s always been your way. It got better for awhile (probably because you weren’t being directly challenged) but now it’s back to business as usual. I really don’t care- just as stated, it was constructive criticism. It makes you, and this site, look bad. But hey- yell at me and Feister some more, etc., I should leave you to your own devices right? Right.

    • Eh, why do you bother?

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