Arctic Ice Refuses to Melt as Ordered

Ice at the Arctic, 2008There’s Something Rotten North of Denmark 

By Steven Goddard

Just a few weeks ago, predictions of Arctic ice collapse were buzzing all over the internet. Some scientists were predicting that the “North Pole may be ice-free for first time this summer”. Others predicted that the entire “polar ice cap would disappear this summer”.

The Arctic melt season is nearly done for this year. The sun is now very low above the horizon and will set for the winter at the North Pole in five weeks. And none of these dire predictions have come to pass. Yet there is, however, something odd going on with the ice data.

The National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) in Boulder, Colorado released an alarming graph on August 11, showing that Arctic ice was rapidly disappearing, back towards last year’s record minimum. Their data shows Arctic sea ice extent only 10 per cent greater than this date in 2007, and the second lowest on record. Here’s a smaller version of the graph:

NSDIC Sea Ice Extent

The National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC)’s troublesome ice graph


The problem is that this graph does not appear to be correct. Other data sources show Arctic ice having made a nice recovery this summer. NASA Marshall Space Flight Center data shows 2008 ice nearly identical to 2002, 2005 and 2006. Maps of Arctic ice extent are readily available from several sources, including the University of Illinois, which keeps a daily archive for the last 30 years. A comparison of these maps (derived from NSIDC data) below shows that Arctic ice extent was 30 per cent greater on August 11, 2008 than it was on the August 12, 2007. (2008 is a leap year, so the dates are offset by one.)

Read the rest of this story at The Register.

7 Responses to Arctic Ice Refuses to Melt as Ordered

  1. Rob N. Hood August 22, 2008 at 7:24 am #

    Rising temperatures and erratic weather patterns are changing historic trends in the coffee season, growers say in Peru, a country closely tied to the impact of climate change because of its rapidly melting tropical glaciers. Rocha, a picker, says warmer temperatures are responsible for her early start this year — about a month earlier than last. Farmers are also reporting high-altitude plants are maturing at times more typical of their low-land counterparts. “The seasons are changing tremendously. You can no longer say winter is in November, December or March. It falls in other months sometimes,” said Cesar Rivas, president of the national growers’ group. “This is generating complete productive disorder,” he said.

    They must be chewing too many coca leaves…

  2. Tim August 26, 2008 at 8:57 am #

    You might want to re-read the article. The author has retracted it admitting he got the data wrong.

  3. Dan McGrath August 26, 2008 at 3:48 pm #

    Actually, the author hasn’t retracted the article, only one factual error. The premise still stands that the Arctic ice is not melting as predicted. The editor’s note indicates the ice extent has grown 10% rather than the 30% Goddard asserted.

    Predictions that the North Pole would completely melt this summer never came to pass, and there is more ice there now than at the same time last year. Meanwhile, Antarctic ice also continues to expand.

  4. Boogeyman August 27, 2008 at 9:40 pm #

    Actually Dan, it wasn’t predicted that the North Pole would melt completely, but rather that it might possibility happen.

    And yeah the Antarctic ice is expanding – it’s winter there…

  5. Dan McGrath August 28, 2008 at 11:05 am #

    Semantics. They call it a projection. A projection is a prediction based on observed trends. Predictions are always “might possibly,” unless the predictor has a supernatural gift for prophecy, or a time machine.

    Some excerpted predictions:

    “We’re actually projecting this year that the North Pole may be free of ice for the first time [in history].”

    “The polar cap in the Arctic may well disappear this summer due to the global warming, Dr. Olav Orheim, head of the Norwegian International Polar Year Secretariat, said on Friday.

    “If Norway’s average temperature this year equals that in 2007,the ice cap in the Arctic will all melt away, which is highly possible judging from current conditions,” Orheim said.

    None of these alarmist predictions occured.

  6. Austin S May 22, 2009 at 11:42 am #

    global warming is a hoax. Al gore put money in stocks toward green products and promoted global warming so he can make money.

  7. DanM December 17, 2009 at 3:56 pm #

    The fact of the matter is, there is more money in bad news than there is in good news. Science has whored itself to government funding and endless projections of disaster is how they get more money. The warming and cooling of the earth is OLD news. Greenland was a much more hospitable place just a very few centuries ago and the ice levels were much lower then. The Vikings settled it and then were later mostly chased off as the climate cooled again. THIS was before mankind was making much impact on the environment. The disaster of the day that science is fostering to get funds is getting real old and costing us our civilization. Have you noticed that after costing us a couple trillion bucks that the “hole in the ozone layer” has disappeared from the news? The hole was over Antarctica…the puported cause was freon. There is little use for refrigeration in Antarctica and it is hard to see how something that is several times heavier than air ended up 40 miles up in the atmosphere. Now they are saying that global warming is partially caused by cow farts! I guess buffaloes didn’t do that right? What is sad is that in a few years when this farce becomes totally unsupportable they will drop it without anyone noticing it and start a new lie about something else that is going to get us all. I remember being at one of Jimmy Carters gatherings and hearing him tell us that by the year 2000 all know oil reserves would be exhausted. A few years later the oil GLUT destroyed the American oil industry. We the people need to stop being led around by our noses by this endless carrot and stick disaster predictions. When the polar ice caps grow to twice their present size Al Gore will pocket his profits and find a new lie…and we will let him walk away without a word.

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